Forget the headlines about unemployment falling in October. That happens frequently when labor force drops. Forget the 161,000 payroll employment increase; 19,000 was a government job gain. But even the 142,000 private sector gain is misleading.
What we need to look at is the growth in aggregate hours worked. Or in this case the absence of growth. From July to October, private sector weekly hours were unchanged. No growth. Any economic growth emanating for the private economy would have to be in the form of productivity gains, which, of late have been miniscule. Over the past 12 months private sector hours grew a very sluggish 1.3 percent. Virtually all of that is accounted for by the 2 percent increase in hours worked in private services. Note that private services productivity gains are notoriously weak. Unfortunately, the Labor Department does not track hours worked by government employees—which in itself is very interesting.
A big part of the problem is in manufacturing where the aggregate hours worked remains 11 percent below the recession levels of 2006. There has been no growth in manufacturing hours over the last year or over the last three months since July. Indeed, in both cases, hours are down slightly.
The economy is going nowhere fast with these numbers—a disturbing legacy of failed fiscal, regulatory and monetary policies over a long period.
Is it ‘rain’ — or something else?
January 16, 2026