Pittsburgh Public Schools’ enrollment continues to slide

Introduction: The Pittsburgh Public Schools’ (PPS) enrollment slide is well documented, having dropped from 32,529 to 19,570 over the last 20 years.  This Brief will look at the enrollment trends over the last 10 years for PPS and how it compares to other districts in Allegheny County.

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County comparisons

The following table compares the decline in PPS with five neighboring districts:  Montour; Mt. Lebanon; North Hills; Steel Valley and Woodland Hills.  Also included in the table is the total for all school districts in the county as well as all charter schools in the county.  The data is from the Pennsylvania Department of Education.

The data for the last decade have been broken into two segments, pre-pandemic and post-pandemic.  From the 2014-15 school year until 2019-20, the PPS lost nearly 2,000 enrolled students (excluding charter schools) for a drop of 8 percent.  Montour, Mt. Lebanon and North Hills had growth.  Overall, the 43 school districts in Allegheny County (including PPS) had a slight decline of 2.45 percent or nearly 3,500 students.  Both Woodland Hills and Steel Valley had sharper rates of decline than PPS (13.7 and 12 percent respectively).  Charter schools in Allegheny County did quite well during this period with growth of over 2,000 students (28.5 percent).

From school years 2019-20 until 2023-24, the rate of decline increased for PPS, dropping nearly 13 percent or nearly 3,000 students.  Overall, the county’s rate of decline also increased as the drop was more than 4,000 students.  In this sample, Montour, North Hills and Steel Valley picked up enrollment.  Steel Valley reversed its drop from pre-pandemic, while the rate of growth in Montour and North Hills slowed.  Woodland Hills’ decline also slowed dramatically (2.4 percent).  Mt. Lebanon had a slight decline of 1 percent. The charter schools in the county also cooled off a bit as their growth fell to just 4.5 percent.

PPS’s enrollment slide goes back even further as evidenced in the following table.

Using data from PPS financial reports, it can be seen that over the last 20 years the drop has been significant—nearly 40 percent or 13,000 students.  The largest drop was to the secondary grade level followed by the elementary grade level.  The latter is the larger problem as this smaller cohort moves through the system, the drops will likely continue for quite a while.

In 2006, PPS launched the Pittsburgh Promise Program, which offered college scholarships for any student attending PPS schools since at least the 9^th grade and meeting certain academic requirements.  That program did not halt the enrollment slide and quickly lost steam.  The final recipients will be the class of 2028.

The population problem

As mentioned above, unless there are a very large number of children waiting to enter elementary grades, the enrollment decline will likely continue.  Reviewing Census data, hope is slim.  Census data show the City of Pittsburgh has lost significant population from 2000 through 2020, dropping from 338,533 in 2000 to 306,365 in 2020—a loss of 9.5 percent of its population in two decades.  However, most of that loss was in the first decade (8.7 percent), as the loss in the second decade was less than 1 percent.  Allegheny County had a similar problem, losing 5 percent of its population in the first decade but gaining 2 percent in the second.

Annual Census estimates show a very slight growth to the city’s population to 307,668 (0.43 percent).  While it isn’t a decline, it doesn’t show much promise either.

At the county level, the Census shows the components of change: natural and migration.

Census data show that from April 2020 through July 2024, Allegheny County’s natural population decline (births minus deaths) was a negative 10,770.  Births across the county were estimated to be nearly 51,000 over this four-year period, about 12,750 per year. It will likely add some enrollment to county districts.  But is it enough to replace those lost as they move through the system?

But, more important are the migration stats.  Domestic out-migration outpaced incoming-international migration by another 9,000 people during this time.  It’s estimated that since the last Census of 2020, Allegheny has lost another 19,000 residents.  In a county with 1.2 million residents, it isn’t much of a drop over the period.  But it points to a lack of growth, which will ripple throughout the school systems, including PPS.

The migration problem can largely be attributed to a lack of economic opportunities as the area has struggled to match state or national growth trends for jobs.  From 2005 through 2024, the eight-county Pittsburgh Metro Area grew total private jobs at a 5 percent rate.  Meanwhile, Pennsylvania grew those jobs at a 10 percent rate while, nationally, the growth rate was 20 percent.  An abundance of jobs at the turn of the 20^th century drew immigrants by the thousands and grew Pittsburgh’s population to nearly 700,000 in 1950.

This relatively slow growth rate to jobs will not encourage a new generation of migrants.  In fact, it may be pushing them away from, or out of, the area.

Conclusion

Other issues that would obviously be on the mind of prospective parents would be academics and discipline.  PPS schools continuously rank low on statewide achievement tests.

For the 2023-24 achievement exams, PPS ranked 466 (of 610 school districts and charter schools).  The above-mentioned Woodland Hills finished worse (518^th) while Mt. Lebanon finished 14^th.  Montour (49^th), North Hills (92^nd) and Steel Valley (449^th) all fared better than PPS.

Less than half of PPS’ 3^rd graders (48 percent) scored advanced or proficient on the language arts exam while just 42 percent of 8^th graders did the same.  Less than 40 percent of 3^rd graders scored advanced or proficient on the math exam while less than 18 percent of 8^th graders did the same.

This is not a clarion call for prospective parents to choose PPS.

While there aren’t any discipline statistics to quote, PPS has a reputation, real or perceived, of being a tough district with many disciplinary issues.  A recent brief noted the problem with chronic absenteeism which undoubtedly contributes to poor academic performance and boosts per-pupil expenditures.

On an operating expenses basis, according to the PPS’ 2024 annual comprehensive financial report, the cost per-pupil increased from $23,333 in fiscal 2015 to $40,986 in fiscal 2024—an increase of 75.6 percent.  Of course, much of that has to do with the 22 percent drop in enrollment.

While there is much handwringing over the PPS’ plan to consolidate and close school buildings, something has to be done.  A substantial increase in enrollment is very unlikely to materialize any time soon.  The taxpayers of Pittsburgh and the commonwealth deserve better.