Labor Department figures for October are not what Pennsylvania needs to see. Recent employment growth weakness that has put a damper on the Commonwealth’s tax revenue collections continued in October. Unemployment edged up to 5.8 percent from September as household employment rose less than the labor force.
But more importantly, employees on private payrolls slipped lower in almost every major industry sector. Only the mining, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors posted small increases. Interestingly, education and health, and the professional and business services sectors that have been leaders in jobs gains registered declines. Not large losses, but a substantial reversal from strong gains in recent years.
Since March, private employment is up a scant 2,000 jobs with goods producing employment down 6,000. Compared to October 2105, private payrolls are up 35,000. But bear in mind that over 12 months October 2014 to October 2015, jobs rose 55,000 and in the prior 12 months employment climbed 71,000. So what we are seeing is a significant shift to much slower growth that now borders on stagnation.
This does not portend well for state or local revenue collections that are based on jobs and incomes.
How long it will take a for a more pro- growth regime in Washington to impact Pennsylvania is a really important question to follow closely.
