The February household employment survey from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry contains yet another disappointing performance for the Pittsburgh metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This comes on the heels of January’s dismal showing.
The best evidence of the poor labor results lies with the household data. The seasonally adjusted data for February show that the area’s labor force fell by 8,600 persons (employed and unemployed) over the last year (February 2016). While this drop is less than one percent of the area’s labor force, it follows up a January report in which the year over year decline was 8,100 persons.
With seasonally adjusted data, we can look at performance from one month to the next. The recent month to month trend reveals that February’s posting of 1,214,200 is better than January’s count (1,211,800) but less than December 2016’s value (1,220,500). Furthermore, November 2016 had a seasonally adjusted labor force of 1,226,100. Thus while February stopped a three month slide, the area’s labor force is below that of four months ago.
The labor force is comprised of those employed and those who claim to be unemployed. So a loss to the labor force has to be reflected in one of these groups. And in this case, the number of those employed takes the brunt of the losses. The seasonally adjusted level of employment for February 2017 was less than in February 2016 (1,150,100 vs. 1,161,600). Likewise, the January 2017 level of employment was 13,400 less than its year ago level. Furthermore the seasonally adjusted level of those employed in November 2016 (1,155,300) and December 2016 (1,150,600) were greater than in January (1,148,100) and in February (1,150,100).
Looking at the number unemployed shows more of the same. The February 2017 level of 64,100 is up nearly five percent over the February 2016 amount (61,100). The month to month trend indicates the February 2017 total is greater than the January level of 63,700, but less than the December 2016 count (69,900) and the November total (70,800). Of course in order to be counted as unemployed, a person has to be actively looking for work, yet unable to find one. Those not indicating as such are not counted as unemployed and are seen as discouraged workers (not part of the labor force). The drop in the number of unemployed could be the result of people becoming discouraged at the prospects of finding work.
This is the second straight month of disappointing household employment data for the Pittsburgh MSA. While it is still early, only two months in, the year over year losses to the labor force in both January and February is disconcerting. Is this a show of a lack of confidence in the area’s employment picture by households, or perhaps a reflection of the employment dampening economic and regulatory policies of the state and region?
