Comparing Pittsburgh Metro Job Gains with National Performance

In June, the seven county Pittsburgh metro area (MSA) unemployment rate stood at 6.8 percent. In the same month, the national rate was 7.6 percent. So, does that mean the Pittsburgh area jobs market was significantly better than the national? 


The unemployment rate is derived from information obtained in a survey of households wherein each month a sample of people are asked to self-report their employment and labor force participation.  As a result, this survey does not tell us a great deal about what industries are adding or cutting jobs. Moreover, the survey tells us little about the quality or wages associated with jobs.


Fortunately, there is also a survey of establishments that hire and pay employees from which we learn a lot more about where the jobs are, the hours worked and the pay rates.  All of which are vital in assessing the state of the economy in terms of income and output growth.


Returning to the question of how the region is faring compared to the nation, this analysis looks at the regional and national payroll employment changes by important sectors over the last twelve months (June 2012 to June 2013) to ascertain whether there are significant differences in the jobs performance. The analysis focuses on the private sector on the premise that all real prosperity in the U.S. is measured by private sector activity; after all, unless there are producers and taxpayers, the government sector will have no real resources to spend.


Total private employment nationally rose by 2.1 percent from June 2012 to June 2013. Meanwhile, private jobs in the Pittsburgh MSA climbed by 1.6 percent. And, over the last three years the national job growth was 6.2 percent and the region’s gain was 5.8 percent.  Interestingly, while the national gains for both the three year period and the one year period are slightly above the Pittsburgh area increases, the national employment total remains 1.5 million below the peak level reached in 2007. On the other hand, Pittsburgh metro area jobs, while growing slightly slower, have climbed well above (31,000) the pre-recession peak set in 2008.


Bear in mind that from 2003 to 2007, the nation added 7.2 million private jobs, a rise of 6.6 percent.  Employment in the Pittsburgh MSA-during the same four years-expanded by only 2 percent.  For the decade, employment gains for the country and region were virtually the same in percentage terms.  The explanation? The nation suffered an enormous 7.1 percent employment drop during the recession while Southwest Pennsylvania experienced a much smaller 2.5 percent decline thanks to the absence of a housing and construction boom and a very favorable mix of recession resistant sectors.


Focusing on industry growth over the last year, a few similarities and differences stand out. Manufacturing, for example, has managed small gains of less than a percent nationally and locally. Likewise, the leisure and hospitality sector, a major source of job strength in both the region and the country, had almost identical employment gains of around 3.3 percent.  Health care gains were reasonably close at 2.9 percent in the region and 2 percent nationally.


Sectors exhibiting very different growth rates include professional and technical services, construction, retail trade, finance, mining, and private education.


The U.S. jobs gain in construction was much stronger than the region, rising 3 percent while the Pittsburgh area had a small decline. This undoubtedly reflects to some extent a rebound from the almost 30 percent loss in construction employment the nation felt in the recession. The Pittsburgh loss was far lower at 13 percent.


A similar pattern was seen in retail trade. Nationally, jobs managed a pickup of 2.1 percent over the past year, in sharp contrast to the region’s slide of nearly 2 percent.  Indeed, the area’s retail jobs in June 2013 remained almost 9 percent lower than ten years earlier. In contrast, U.S. retail jobs are above the ten year ago level although still not completely recovered from the recession induced losses.


Private education jobs nationally increased by just under one percent in the last year. Pittsburgh area employment tumbled by 4 percent after a smaller but significant drop the year before.


Obviously, since the region’s private job growth was in the ballpark with the national gain, not all local sectors could have had slower rises than the country as a whole. Most prominent among the sectors rising fastest in the region is the industry called professional and technical services, a sector encompassing engineering, accounting, management consulting, scientific research, architecture, public relations, computer systems design, marketing and legal services. Unfortunately, for the Pittsburgh MSA, data is collected for only a few of the sub-sectors in this category so that we cannot say with certainty what is driving the gains.


The good news is that over the last year the MSA has seen a major jump of 8.2 percent (6,100 jobs) in the professional and technical category. That means this fairly small sector-it represents only 7 percent of all employment-has generated a third of all net gains. And interestingly, this sector has added more jobs than health care over the last year even though it’s only one third its size in terms of employees on the payrolls. This is a category that bears watching in the future and more research into what is driving it. A reasonable speculation would be that there is considerable outsourcing from other industries. Another would be that the Marcellus Shale gas drilling activity has produced significant demand for scientific and engineering assistance.


Financial services jobs have fared better in Pittsburgh as well, moving up 4.3 percent over the past year.  Nationally, the uptick was far more modest at only 1.4 percent.  And, countrywide, financial services employment remains well below the 2003 level and a half million under 2007. They were hit very hard by the financial crisis and are having trouble recovering. On the other hand, Pittsburgh MSA financials jobs have moved well above ten year ago levels and are contributing a significant fraction of the net job region’s gains.  


Finally, it is noteworthy that mining and logging jobs climbed 10 percent in the past year compared to just 2 percent nationally. This undoubtedly reflects the impact of Marcellus Shale on the area. While the MSA mining jobs growth rate is impressive, it must be remembered that the employment base is small so that 10 percent is only 1,000 jobs. Still the overall impact of Marcellus on the area’s employment and income are quite substantial and are a boon to the MSA’s economy. 


In sum, the local and national economies are performing somewhat similarly overall in terms of private employment gains. But in light of the depth of the national recession and the expectation of some rebound, the job growth for the country over the past three years and last year must be considered extraordinarily slow. And it is a great disappoint in light of the employment increase over the years leading up to the recession. Pittsburgh MSA employment expansion since the recession has been strong relative to its pre-recession pattern and in all likelihood reflects some structural industry shift. Whether that shift will continue to add impetus as we have seen in the last three years remains to be seen. 

The Incredible Vanishing Labor Force

So there is joy at the White House. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.6 percent in March from 7.7 percent in February. That is the headline, but as Paul Harvey would say, "Now the rest of the story." Incredibly, the unemployment rate went down although the number of people employed fell by 206,000. How is this possible, one might reasonably ask. Very simple. The number of people working or looking for work-the labor force-fell by 496,000 (the number of people not in the labor force jumped by 663,000). By the Labor Department’s calculation that brings the number unemployed down by 290,000. Ergo, the ratio of unemployed to the labor force dropped. Just a matter of mathematics.

The labor force participation rate, the ratio of those in the labor force to the civilian non-institutional population, dipped to 63.3 percent from 63.5 percent in February-already one of the lowest in decades.

Meanwhile, the number of people with jobs as measured by the survey of establishment payroll counts rose by a scant 88,000 in March with widespread weakness in goods production-manufacturing was down by 3,000 jobs-and service producing employment. Retail jobs tumbled by 24,100, finance was lower, leisure and hospitality was down along with transportation and warehousing. Only the education and health services component and professional and business services demonstrated any significant strength, accounting for over two thirds of all the net increase in payroll employment.

This is clearly a very disturbing jobs report from both the household survey, from which the labor force and unemployment rate data are derived, and the establishment survey that measures the number of paying jobs as opposed to the number of people working or looking for work.

There can be little credence put in claims that the economy is picking up steam, notwithstanding the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus being applied in Washington. There is little doubt that the effects of the tax increase in January and the impacts of the Affordable Care Act along with torrent of regulations emanating from DC are having a chilling effect on the economy.

Pennsylvania’s Job Market Improvement Hit a Snag in July and August

After some solid gains over the last year or so, Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate jumped from 7.8 percent in July to 8.2 percent in August. A 16,000 drop in the number of employed (as measured by the household survey) and a 6,000 increase in labor force pushed the unemployment rate up quite sharply. At the same time, the separate establishment survey of jobs found a tiny 1,500 rise in employee count from July to August-much smaller than the average 5,700 per month increase since January.

What’s more, the July establishment job count was revised downward by 11,000 resulting in slight 2,000 job decline from June’s reading rather than the 9,000 jump reported in the July Labor and Industry Department’s release on labor force statistics. On a year over year basis, August employment remains 56,600 ahead of the August 2010 level. However, that figure is well below the 85,000 average of year on year gains during the first three months of 2011. The only truly bright spots in the August data were the gains in mining, manufacturing, professional services and financial employment. Surprisingly, the education and health services sector posted a decline as did leisure and hospitality, sectors that have been mainstays of the jobs recovery. Meanwhile, information services suffered an abrupt 3.6 percent drop in employment between July and August.

All told, the substantial downward revision in July numbers and the small increase in August establishment jobs point to a significant slowing in the Commonwealth’s progress to full labor market recovery.

Job Creation Silliness

It must be the time of year for some to engage in the kind of intellectual vacuity that represents total abandonment of reason. The Keystone Research Center just released a study purportedly showing Pennsylvania’s employment situation to be worse than the 7.4 percent current unemployment rate depicts. Fair enough. Everyone who follows the labor market knows there are lots of folks who are underemployed or have dropped out of the work force because they have become discouraged. That is not news.

But come on. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is well below the national average-for several reasons. First, because the state has been such a slow performer for many years prior to the recession and did not have a housing boom as did many states, the housing induced downturn was not as dramatic in Pennsylvania. Second, the industry mix of jobs in Pennsylvania has changed substantially over the decades away from goods producing jobs that are subject to recessions toward industries that are more recession resistant. Third, the state is in the midst of a booming growth in the natural gas business thanks to Marcellus Shale that is greatly improving the labor situation.

There is no mention in the report of the reasons Pennsylvania has been a perennial slow growth state. That list would include punitive anti-business labor laws, lawsuit abuse, environmental regulations, business taxes, prevailing wage requirements and a generally unfriendly business climate.

But the report does have recommendations on how to grow jobs. More government spending, especially on infrastructure, extending jobless benefits and job training.

How predictable. Government spending of money the state does not have to create prevailing wage jobs to support union workers. Job training to do what? To learn how to work on roads that are in endless need of repair?

Not a word about addressing the obstacles to growth in the state. There is no talk of Right to Work, ending teacher strikes, eliminating prevailing wage and getting environmental regulations under control. In short, this is nothing more than the failed policies that have crippled Pennsylvania’s economy for decades. It is stunning to see how resistant to facts and reason some people can be.

Candidates Spar Over Allegheny County Jobs: Who is Right?


Two candidates vying for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination have questioned the accuracy of County Executive Onorato’s campaign ads regarding claims of job creation and are suggesting they are misleading. Onorato’s spokesperson fired back at the competitors in a Tribune Review news report saying, “At a time when the entire country is struggling, Allegheny County is performing better (in employment) than the state and the nation.” And he went on to say, “it’s performing better for a reason,” giving credit to the Executive’s efforts to attract economic development funding, balance the budget and hold the line on property taxes.


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Job Numbers in Allegheny County: Who is Right?

"At a time when the entire country is struggling, Allegheny County is performing better (in employment) than the state and the nation". This quote is attributed to the spokesperson for the gubernatorial campaign for the current Chief Executive of Allegheny County. Other gubernatorial candidates have questioned the job numbers cited in the Chief Executive’s campaign ads.

Though it is impossible to determine from the quote which exact metric (unemployment rate, number of Allegheny County residents employed, number of jobs in Allegheny County) or time frame (since 2000, since 2008, since 2009) it is clear that the intent of the statement is to say that Allegheny County is doing better than the rest of PA and the U.S. Is that true?

Let’s look at the period since January 2004, when the Chief Exec took office, to January 2008, pre-recession. Overall unemployment rate in the County fell 1.1 percentage points from 6% to 4.9%; private job count in Allegheny County went up 0.3% (from 600.8k to 602.9k); and Allegheny County residents holding jobs rose 1.8% (from 599k to 610k).

How does this compare to the state as a whole? Statewide the unemployment fell 1 percentage point, a tenth of a point less than the County’s change (and probably not statistically significant); the private job count went up 4.5%, and the Pennsylvanians holding jobs grew 4.2%. On both the establishment and the household counts the state bested the County’s rate by 3 percentage points.

So, it is a huge stretch to claim that Allegheny County has outperformed the state and the nation, especially over the period since the current Executive took the reins. If the reference is to the recent unemployment rate, that is a very misleading statistic because of different rates of labor force growth in the state, county and nation. Slow or non-existent labor force growth can hold unemployment rates down even when the number of jobholders is not growing.

Signs of Labor Market Weakness in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate held steady in June as a 40,000 drop in employed persons was accompanied by a similar sized decline in the labor force. Thus, the number unemployed but looking for work rose only very slightly. (The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed but looking for work divided by the sum of people working and those not working but looking.)

While the steady unemployment rate in June could be viewed asa sign of labor market conditions not getting worse, there are some other indicators that suggest the labor market has not yet stabilized. First, the average manufacturing work week dipped two full hours below the June 2008 level. This means overtime has been virtually eliminated and, combined with the big drop in jobs, it points to very weak worker income in this sector. The 39.1 hour week in June 2009 is the lowest recorded June weekly hours number in at least ten years and is over an hour below the June work weeks during the 2001-2002 recession.

Second, the number of outsourced type jobs, including administrative and support services and employment services, are down sharply from 2007 peak levels. Admin and support jobs are off by 36,000 or more than 10 percent while employment services (temporary help) jobs are off by 28,000 or 28 percent. Although weakness began to emerge between June of 2007 and 2008, the last twelve months have seen shockingly large declines in these groups.

The severe employment weakness in these sectors combined with the big falloff in manufacturing hours-along with employees who are facing mandatory short term leaves and who are losing benefits-all add up to real problems for government tax collections.

There is one sector that has no need to worry however. Public education employment continues to rise, hitting a new decade long high in June as state payrolls rose by 3,000 compared to June 2008 to tie the 2003 mark and local public education nudged upward to its new record high. And with no worries about job loss, there is the added benefit of not having to lose income due to belt tightening. Indeed, for employees with contracts scheduled wage increases will have to be paid.

If ever there was sacred cow this must be it. Whether academic results are good or bad, the money just keeps on rolling in.