Friday, February 15, 2008
Rendell’s Gaffe on Alleged Voter Racism
Governor Rendell has stirred considerable controversy as a result of comments wherein he essentially accused certain segments of Pennsylvania’s voters of being unwilling to vote for a black candidate. He is quoted as saying that Lynn Swann could have gotten as much as a five percent higher vote count if not for the voters who cannot bring themselves to vote for a black candidate.
Well what does the evidence from voter patterns in that election actually tell us? Mr. Rendell might want to look at the CNN voter exit survey taken during the 2006 gubernatorial election. Undoubtedly, two findings would give him pause. First, Mr. Swann, the African-American candidate, received only 13 percent of the African-American vote. Swann received 46 percent of the white male vote, one of his highest totals among major categories of voters. Swann received 79 percent of Republican votes and 73 percent of conservative votes. Meanwhile, Swann received only 13 percent of self-described liberal votes.
Swann received 68 percent of the votes of people who are dedicated church goers. Rendell got 77 percent of votes of those who said they never go to church. Half of the Protestant vote went to Swann. The Jewish, other non-Christian and no religion group went overwhelmingly for Rendell giving him a better than 80 percent of their votes. And it gets more interesting. Of the supposed more tolerant and more progressive voters with post graduate education, 72 percent voted for Rendell.
Similarly, union members gave Rendell 70 percent of their vote.
Finally, it is key to note that among those who approved of Bush’s job performance, Swann received 88 percent of the vote while Rendell got 92 percent of the votes for the group who strongly disapproved of Bush’s job performance.
The inescapable conclusion to be reached from these findings: the motivation for people to vote for Swann or Rendell was traceable primarily to ideological reasons. Race hardly entered into the equation. In fact, one might reasonably argue that Swann received some votes from white voters principally because they wanted to help an African-American candidate.
Moreover, one could easily argue that Swann could have increased his Republican and conservative vote totals if he had a run a campaign based more solidly on conservative principles instead of the bland, watered down campaign version that was actually presented.
Well what does the evidence from voter patterns in that election actually tell us? Mr. Rendell might want to look at the CNN voter exit survey taken during the 2006 gubernatorial election. Undoubtedly, two findings would give him pause. First, Mr. Swann, the African-American candidate, received only 13 percent of the African-American vote. Swann received 46 percent of the white male vote, one of his highest totals among major categories of voters. Swann received 79 percent of Republican votes and 73 percent of conservative votes. Meanwhile, Swann received only 13 percent of self-described liberal votes.
Swann received 68 percent of the votes of people who are dedicated church goers. Rendell got 77 percent of votes of those who said they never go to church. Half of the Protestant vote went to Swann. The Jewish, other non-Christian and no religion group went overwhelmingly for Rendell giving him a better than 80 percent of their votes. And it gets more interesting. Of the supposed more tolerant and more progressive voters with post graduate education, 72 percent voted for Rendell.
Similarly, union members gave Rendell 70 percent of their vote.
Finally, it is key to note that among those who approved of Bush’s job performance, Swann received 88 percent of the vote while Rendell got 92 percent of the votes for the group who strongly disapproved of Bush’s job performance.
The inescapable conclusion to be reached from these findings: the motivation for people to vote for Swann or Rendell was traceable primarily to ideological reasons. Race hardly entered into the equation. In fact, one might reasonably argue that Swann received some votes from white voters principally because they wanted to help an African-American candidate.
Moreover, one could easily argue that Swann could have increased his Republican and conservative vote totals if he had a run a campaign based more solidly on conservative principles instead of the bland, watered down campaign version that was actually presented.
